Many politicians are ignorant of the facts about the lifespan of oil as a commodity we can rely upon in the future. Many don’t understand Climate Change.

Like the majority of people, even the media, there’s a confusion between ‘Peak Oil’ and the ‘Peak oil debate’. Let’s look at some of the main points Trump doesn’t get:

  • If you are asked about what is Peak Oil – it’s just the point when oil reaches maximum rate of production. This can be local for one well, national or global. It’s nothing to do with oil running out.
  • Remember the US makes up just 15% of the total global oil production. When non-numerate journalists start writing about new oil discoveries, fracked oil and tar sands, they need to wake up. These new discoveries are tiny fractions of the total that runs civilization
  • Abiotic Oil, even if true, is not going to solve the issue that oil is a finite resource. Finite resources peak and decline.
  • No-one ever claimed oil was ‘running out’. Oil company sponsored journalists or just ignorant ones love to them say that oil is not running out, based on a myth that Peak Oil is all about oil running out. Peak Oil is the maximum rate of production. That’s far from it running out.
  • Journalists seem to really understand Peak Demand, and the debate that goes with it. Let’s see if a few wake up one day to understand Peak Oil and the debate as well?
  • Peak oil is related to timing – when do we estimated using probability and maths this will occur? Has it occurred already? Or will new finds delay the event? Will oil production decline slowly or quickly? Will demand have an impact or is it just supply, or is it a bit of both? What about price volatility after the peak?  To answer these questions you need a good understanding of peak oil, and how the feedback loops work. It’s something that I believe everyone can understand.
  • Will Peak Oil help to encourage governments to consider the consequences of a future decline in oil, and thus invest heavily in replacement or substitute technologies? This debate is all about what you believe. In our course we give you three possible scenarios that will help you to understand the various solutions.
  • Peak Oil and the debate that surrounds it is not pessimistic. It is both pessimistic and optimistic. The evidence suggests that humans have a problem. However, it also suggests we are capable of solving the problem. It might not be a nice solution, or it just might be a breathtaking one. We don’t know. Our course gives you the opportunity to consider the facts and the options available.
  • When faced with reading any article on Peak oil check to see if they discuss in detail rate of oil production, whether they discuss Malthus or Cornucopian’s, and check to see who they are sponsored by. You will soon know if what you are reading is true or not.

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  • When reading an optimists view, make sure they mention at least one of these theories to back up their claim: 1: oil production will cease to decline and start rising again. NB. this will not be a permanent thing! 2. Shale oil or tight oil production will bolster supply gains and fill the gap in conventional oil. NB. this will not be a permanent thing! 3. Shale oil or tight oil will not peak short term. This has never been the case, so they need to find us evidence of this going forward. Even if it did, it’s not a permanent solution because oil is finite. 4. Global peak demand will reduce the need for oil, so sustainable production will be reduced gradually.
  • Remember that whilst personal vehicles might all eventually be LPG, hydrogen, hybrid or probably electric, therefore reducing oil demand in this sector, there’s evidence showing that freight, particularly shipping and airlines will grow in demand. There is also mining demands and industrial demands for oil and gas, which could interfere with what type of power we use for personal vehicles.
  • Above all else, although we can give you a heads up on the facts and what is LIKELY to happen in the future, we cannot predict the future accurately. Often humans have made predictions which are way off. They tend to exaggerate either the technological dreams or the worst case scenarios. On our course we provide you with BOTH so that you get a balance view of what is likely to happen.
  • Every energy conference you will ever attend on this subject will have panel on it that love to discuss peak oil in relation to peak oil demand. As you listen to them, see if they mention natural declines, under-investment, feed-back loops within the peak oil system, and threat that might lead to peak supply. The history of all histories is ‘war’, but the history of oil is about production gains and declines.

 

 

 

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